A fair bit of USD volatility in the afternoon, with Trump, at one point, signalling he was on his way to firing Fed Chair Powell, only to then go and refute this claim within the hour. USD lost almost 1% initially before the losses pared by the end of the day. Another fine example of the TACO (Trump always chickens out) trade! GBP moves were subdued following that higher CPI number in the morning.
Earlier in the day, PPI numbers from the US surprisingly came in lower than expected; however, market impact was minimal.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 17.07.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 17.07.25
UK job numbers showed a slowdown in May's pay growth, increased unemployment rate and payrolls that showed 41,000 job losses. Collectively, this is pointing to a strong possibility of a rate cut being introduced as early as August. However, GBP, prompted by key support levels versus USD and EUR is relatively unmoved on the jobs numbers.
Following hawkish comments from Fed Williams and Bosti, USD gained overnight. All eyes are now on today’s US retail sales and jobless claims figures, which will be pivotal in determining whether the dollar’s gains for this month will continue.
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