Currency news / June 4, 2025

US data remains key this week

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJune 4, 2025

Market snapshot:

Dollar catches bid ahead of job numbers this week

Yesterday's currency recap

Yesterday, aided by an upside surprise in the JOLTS numbers, the dollar bounced back. This suggests demand for workers for the month of April remained healthy. Fed Bostic commented that he sees the best monetary policy approach for the Fed to be patience. Treasury yields spiked, as did demand for the dollar.

Earlier in the day, CPI numbers from Europe came in lower than expected at 1.9%, seeing a weaker euro across the board.

GDP from Australia missed the mark this morning - growth for Q1 came in at 0.2% versus the expected 0.4%. GBPAUD remains strong.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.34%	2.0866
GBPCAD	0.31%	1.8559
GBPCHF	0.04%	1.1075
GBPDKK	-0.04%	8.8425
GBPEUR	-0.04%	1.1852
GBPJPY	-0.25%	193.422
GBPNOK	-0.60%	13.6644
GBPNZD	-0.50%	2.2455
GBPSEK	0.10%	12.9203
GBPUSD	0.63%	1.3547

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 04.06.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 04.06.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	CPI MoM	May	0.00%	0.60%
EUR	CPI YoY	May	2.00%	2.20%
EUR	Core	May	2.50%	2.70%
USD	JOLTS Job Openings	Apr	7,100,000	7,192,000

Today's speeches

USD: Fed Bostic, Cook

What we think

Trump's doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% takes effect today. Fortunately, the UK has secured an exemption from this increase, though the pound remains largely unaffected. Trump has also spoken this morning stating that President Xi of China is “very tough, and extremely hard to deal with”, but this has had very little impact on markets.

More US data is due out today. This is expected to give markets a gauge of how the US economy continues to deal with the impact of Trump's tariffs.

This week has been a rollercoaster for economic data, with the dip in manufacturing figures being offset by impressive JOLTS report numbers, leading to a fluctuating dollar that first dipped and then rebounded.

The Fed’s beige book is also due for release this evening.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hold interest rates at 2.75%, with officials likely to indicate clearer signals on how the US trade war will affect the economy.

Read more about the BoC's interest rate decisions here - When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?

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