Currency news

Geopolitical risks back in the fore

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Published:
October 2, 2024
    • USD gains on safe haven demand
    • Domestic news set to take a back seat to Middle East tensions


    Yesterday's currency recap

    Market sentiment was rattled yesterday after reports that Iran was preparing a ballistic missile attack against Israel. As a result, GBP declined across the board and USD gained broadly on safe haven demand.

    Earlier in the day EU CPI fell below projections, month-on-month, cementing the market's pricing for an October rate cut.

    USD data was a mixed bag - JOLTS job openings came in stronger than expected  while, disappointingly, ISM manufacturing held steady at 47.2, failing to rise to 47.5 as anticipated.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.20% 1.9329
    GBPCAD -0.90% 1.8099
    GBPCHF -0.76% 1.1317
    GBPDKK -0.10% 8.9616
    GBPEUR -0.10% 1.2022
    GBPJPY -0.80% 191.9920
    GBPNOK -0.28% 14.1201
    GBPNZD 0.28% 2.1059
    GBPSEK 0.37% 13.5954
    GBPUSD -0.76% 1.3394


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 02.10.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 02.10.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    USD ADP Employment Change Sep 125,000 99,000

    What we think

    Geopolitical risks will likely be the main driver in markets, at least before Friday’s job numbers from the US. Building on yesterday's market movements, the current landscape is poised to further bolster the USD, regardless of any potential letdown from the ADP payroll figures.

    GBPEUR continues to trade near 30-month highs.

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