GBP was broadly higher yesterday going into this morning's job numbers. USD was broadly lower, but losses were limited after the NY Fed survey revealed an uptick in consumer expectations for inflation over the next year. The numbers follow on from Fed speak last Friday, leaning towards the hawkish side with Fed Bowman suggesting she sees rates staying on hold this year.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 14.05.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 14.05.24
There were signs in today's data that the job market is showing signs of cooling, despite wage growth coming in higher. The number of people on payrolls fell by 85,000 in April, well below consensus, and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3%. Market pricing for a June cut remains at 57% probability, and GBP is stable. Next key data for the GBP and the BoE will be next Wednesday's inflation report. BoE member Pill is set to speak today also.
Today we get US inflation numbers at a production level in the form of PPI. The core number as ever will be key to determine domestic price pressures, and a higher print here will back Fed talk of late and going into tomorrow's CPI numbers, USD should garner support. Fed Powell is also set to speak today.
Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making global payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 18 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £10bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.
Have a great day.
