Currency news

Signs of UK job market cooling

Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
14/05/24
    • June rate cut still in play after jobs numbers
    • Production inflation numbers in focus today stateside


    Yesterday's currency recap

    GBP was broadly higher yesterday going into this morning's job numbers. USD was broadly lower, but losses were limited after the NY Fed survey revealed an uptick in consumer expectations for inflation over the next year. The numbers follow on from Fed speak last Friday, leaning towards the hawkish side with Fed Bowman suggesting she sees rates staying on hold this year.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.16% 1.9001
    GBPCAD 0.30% 1.7178
    GBPCHF 0.30% 1.1387
    GBPDKK 0.04% 8.6782
    GBPEUR 0.04% 1.1633
    GBPJPY 0.50% 196.0900
    GBPNOK 0.02% 13.5820
    GBPNZD 0.30% 2.0870
    GBPSEK 0.20% 13.6070
    GBPUSD 0.24% 1.2555


    *Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 14.05.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 14.05.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    USD PPI MoM Apr 0.30% 0.20%
    USD PPI YoY Apr 2.20% 2.10%
    USD Core PPI MoM Apr 0.20% 0.20%
    USD Core PPI YoY Apr 2.30% 2.40%

    Upcoming speeches

    • GBP: BoE Pill
    • USD: Fed Powell, Cook
    • EUR: ECB Schnabel, Knot

    What we think

    There were signs in today's data that the job market is showing signs of cooling, despite wage growth coming in higher. The number of people on payrolls fell by 85,000 in April, well below consensus, and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.3%. Market pricing for a June cut remains at 57% probability, and GBP is stable. Next key data for the GBP and the BoE will be next Wednesday's inflation report. BoE member Pill is set to speak today also.

    Today we get US inflation numbers at a production level in the form of PPI. The core number as ever will be key to determine domestic price pressures, and a higher print here will back Fed talk of late and going into tomorrow's CPI numbers, USD should garner support. Fed Powell is also set to speak today.

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    About the author
    Thanim Islam
    Profile
    Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

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