US retail sales beat expectations in March, causing US treasury yields to climb to 4.64%, as well as causing more gains for USD, with EURUSD hitting new 6-month lows. The data continues to illustrate how much better the US economy is performing than initially expected.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 16.04.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 16.04.24
Mixed numbers from the job market today with weekly earnings coming in higher-than-expected, but the unemployment rate also coming in higher as 4.2% from 3.9%. GBP is mixed across the board as a result, with market pricing still suggesting the BoE will cut rates in August. Tomorrow’s inflation numbers at 7am will be the next key event for GBP. USD is marginally higher to start the day, sticking to its current uptrend. We have a host of speakers from the ECB, Fed, BoE.
GBPEUR once again is trading near yearly highs, with the markets continuing to place higher odds that the ECB will cut interest rates before the Bank of England. Current pricing sees an 87% chance of a rate cut in June with only a 40% chance of a cut in the same month.
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