Currency news

Job numbers suggest BoE cut in August

Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
16/04/24
  • USD still gaining in this market
  • UK job numbers mixed


Recap

US retail sales beat expectations in March, causing US treasury yields to climb to 4.64%, as well as causing more gains for USD, with EURUSD hitting new 6-month lows. The data continues to illustrate how much better the US economy is performing than initially expected.

Today

Market rates

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 16.04.24

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 16.04.24

Table - 2024-04-16T082819.472

Data points

Table - 2024-04-16T082822.731

Speeches

  • EUR: ECB Rehn, Villeroy, and Vujcic
  • USD: Fed Powell, Jefferson, Barkin
  • GBP: BoE Baileu

Our thoughts

Mixed numbers from the job market today with weekly earnings coming in higher-than-expected, but the unemployment rate also coming in higher as 4.2% from 3.9%. GBP is mixed across the board as a result, with market pricing still suggesting the BoE will cut rates in August. Tomorrow’s inflation numbers at 7am will be the next key event for GBP. USD is marginally higher to start the day, sticking to its current uptrend. We have a host of speakers from the ECB, Fed, BoE.

Chart of the day

GBPEUR once again is trading near yearly highs, with the markets continuing to place higher odds that the ECB will cut interest rates before the Bank of England. Current pricing sees an 87% chance of a rate cut in June with only a 40% chance of a cut in the same month.

16042024 cotd
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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About the author
Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

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