- GBP under pressure on suggestion of earlier rate cut
- UK retail sales bounce back
Yesterday's currency recap
That was the key line from yesterday's BoE meeting suggesting more officials from the Bank may be leaning towards a rate cut. As a result, market odds of a September and August rate cut firmed up from 80% to 98% and from 50% to 65% respectively. GBP finished lower across the board.
CHF was broadly weaker following a rate cut and lowering their inflation forecasts. The weaker CHF caused broader inflows into USD. GBP USD currently sits at a one-month low.
Today's GBP rates
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 21.06.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 21.06.24
Key data points
Upcoming speeches
- None today.
What we think
UK retail sales this morning showed a surprise jump in May as the return of drier weather brought consumers back into shops. GBP initially gained but moves were short lived with yesterday's dovish BoE meeting taking precedence on GBP direction.
For the rest of the day, focus falls on initial estimates of PMI numbers across Europe, UK and the US. Europe's numbers so far have come in less than expected putting early pressure on the EUR.
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