Currency news

‘Finely Balanced’ BoE

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
21/06/24
    • GBP under pressure on suggestion of earlier rate cut
    • UK retail sales bounce back


    Yesterday's currency recap

    That was the key line from yesterday's BoE meeting suggesting more officials from the Bank may be leaning towards a rate cut. As a result, market odds of a September and August rate cut firmed up from 80% to 98% and from 50% to 65% respectively. GBP finished lower across the board.

    CHF was broadly weaker following a rate cut and lowering their inflation forecasts. The weaker CHF caused broader inflows into USD. GBP USD currently sits at a one-month low.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.06% 1.9006
    GBPCAD -0.06% 1.7313
    GBPCHF -0.07% 1.1274
    GBPDKK -0.02% 8.8205
    GBPEUR -0.02% 1.1827
    GBPJPY -0.10% 200.9810
    GBPNOK 0.03% 13.3609
    GBPNZD -0.10% 2.0660
    GBPSEK -0.10% 13.2796
    GBPUSD -0.10% 1.2649


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 21.06.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 21.06.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR Manufacturing PMI Jun 47.90 47.30
    EUR Services PMI Jun 53.40 53.20
    EUR Composite PMI Jun 52.50 52.20
    GBP Manufacturing PMI Jun 51.10 51.20
    GBP Services PMI Jun 53.00 52.90
    GBP Composite PMI Jun 53.00 53.00
    USD Manufacturing PMI Jun 51.00 51.30
    USD Services PMI Jun 54.00 54.80
    USD Composite PMI Jun 53.50 54.50

    Upcoming speeches

    • None today.

    What we think

    UK retail sales this morning showed a surprise jump in May as the return of drier weather brought consumers back into shops. GBP initially gained but moves were short lived with yesterday's dovish BoE meeting taking precedence on GBP direction.

    For the rest of the day, focus falls on initial estimates of PMI numbers across Europe, UK and the US. Europe's numbers so far have come in less than expected putting early pressure on the EUR.

    We specialise in currency guidance

    Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making global payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

    Have a great day.

    International payments made simple
    Find out more
    About the author
    Thanim Islam
    Profile
    Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

    Still have questions?

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

    This is some text inside of a div block.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.