Currency news

Disinflation to continue in the EU

Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
30/04/24
  • Focus on the core CPI number today
  • Fed’s wage measure set to rise


Yesterday's currency recap

GBP enjoyed gains across the board yesterday, a bit of a surprise given there were no clear catalysts behind the move. The initial gains we saw on JPY in the morning eased as the day progressed.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
GBPAUD 0.03% 1.9133
GBPCAD 0.28% 1.7136
GBPCHF 0.06% 1.1434
GBPDKK 0.23% 8.7344
GBPEUR 0.23% 1.1711
GBPJPY -0.58% 196.6600
GBPNOK 0.11% 13.8031
GBPNZD -0.04% 2.1019
GBPSEK 0.50% 13.7260
GBPUSD 0.50% 1.2551


*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 30.04.24

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 30.04.24

Key data points


Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
EUR CPI MoM Apr 0.60% 0.80%
EUR CPI YoY Apr 2.40% 2.40%
EUR Core CPI YoY Apr 2.60% 2.90%
EUR GDP QoQ Q1 0.10% 0.00%
EUR GDP YoY Q1 0.20% 0.10%
USD Employment Cost Index Q1 1.00% 0.90%

Upcoming speeches

  • None today.

What we think

All eyes open at 10am waiting for the inflation and growth numbers from Europe. Markets are currently pricing in a 0.25% rate cut for June, followed by another 0.25% cut in September, and this morning's could well be important in determining if the needle for a second rate cut moves to July instead. Growth in the eurozone looks to be pretty stagnant to 0.1% for the 1st quarter. Later in the afternoon we have the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the employment cost index, and upside pressure on this will likely cause USD gains.

Chart of the day

Inflation has been steadily declining since mid-2023 in Europe, leading markets to price in a rate cut by the ECB in June, as well as adding to bets that the ECB will cut more than the BoE and the Fed this year. Today's core CPI number is expected to decline further to 2.6%. Any further declines than this could well push the needle for the second rate cut by the ECB to happen in July.

30042024 cotd
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

We specialise in currency guidance

Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 18 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £10bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

Have a great day.

International payments made simple
Find out more
About the author
Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

Still have questions?

This is some text inside of a div block.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

This is some text inside of a div block.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

This is some text inside of a div block.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.