Currency news / March 3, 2025

Big week to kick off March

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamMarch 3, 2025

Market snapshot:

EURUSD suffers big weekly reversal
US jobs, ECB and tariffs take centre stage this week

Currency recap

We saw big weekly reversals on GBPUSD and EURUSD on Friday, potentially indicating the end of the recent uptrend on both currency pairs.

The latter was hit the most after US-Ukraine talks talks fell through on Friday, when a heated exchange between Trump and Zelensky took the proposed mineral deal off the table for now. Zelensky has since commented that he would be willing to meet Trump again if he extended a private invite back at the White House.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.04%	2.0264
GBPCAD	0.03%	1.8196
GBPCHF	0.01%	1.1360
GBPDKK	-0.06%	9.0338
GBPEUR	-0.06%	1.2113
GBPJPY	-0.12%	189.1820
GBPNOK	0.04%	14.1465
GBPNZD	0.13%	2.2495
GBPSEK	-0.36%	13.4911
GBPUSD	0.20%	1.2600

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 03.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 03.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	CPI MoM	Feb	0.40%	-0.30%
EUR	CPI YoY	Feb	2.30%	2.50%
EUR	Core CPI YoY	Feb	2.50%	2.70%
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	Feb	50.80	50.90

What we think

Macron told French newspaper Le Figaro that he and Keir Starmer are working on a plan to reach a one month truce in Ukraine lifting EUR in early trade. EUR CPI is in focus this morning, which could come in lower than expected after regional prints from Spain and German undershot as well. We also have ISM manufacturing numbers from the US in the afternoon.

Also this week, we wait to see whether the US's proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico and China will go ahead.

Big week to kick off March with the release of February’s US Job numbers on top of the the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The US exceptionalism story took a hit over February with weaker data seeing USD weaken over the course of the month. A strong job market could rekindle demand for the greenback once again. The ECB are widely expected to cut rates by a further 0.25%, which is fully priced in by the markets. So the key driving factor for EUR will likely be the accompanying statement by Christine Lagarde and whether there are any changes to the ECB’s easing policy.

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