Currency news / June 19, 2025

GBPUSD falls to one-month low

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJune 19, 2025

Market snapshot:

Fed holds rates but raises inflation forecasts
Sterling braced for Bank of England decision
US officials said to be preparing for Iran strike

Yesterday's currency recap

The US dollar gained last night following the Fed interest rate decision and FOMC meeting, with Chairman Powell raising inflation expectations due to tariffs. This suggests policymakers will want to assess the impact of rising prices on consumer behaviour.

Whilst the Fed's dot plot pencilled in two more rate cuts this year, it was clear Fed members were split in their thoughts for this year, with 10 officials expecting two rate cuts this year and 7 officials foreseeing no rate cuts. The Fed held rates in yesterday's meeting as widely expected.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.38%	2.0655
GBPCAD	0.35%	1.8424
GBPCHF	0.40%	1.101
GBPDKK	-0.03%	8.72
GBPEUR	-0.03%	1.169
GBPJPY	-0.15%	194.765
GBPNOK	0.47%	13.4072
GBPNZD	-0.20%	2.2274
GBPSEK	0.80%	12.9247
GBPUSD	0.30%	1.347

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 19.06.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 19.06.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
GBP	BoE Rate Decision	June	4.25%	4.25%

What we think

Markets have started the day risk averse on reports that the US are preparing for a possible strike on Iran as soon as this weekend. Foreign ministers from UK, Germany and France are reportedly set to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva tomorrow.

All eyes on the Bank of England today and whether we see any dovish tilts from members in light of recent wage and GDP numbers. Following the poor numbers last week, markets shifted their expectations for the next rate cut from November to September and have priced in a 75% chance that a cut could come earlier in August. Although yesterday's UK CPI numbers came in lower than expected, much of this was due to a correction by the ONS following an error in April's numbers. No rate cut is expected in today's meeting.

GBPUSD is currently trading at a one-month low, falling through prior support and opening up the possibility of a further move down.

Read more about the Bank of England's interest rate decisions here - When is the next BoE interest rate decision?

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