Currency news

Markets buoyed on trade deal talks

Head of FX Analysis
-
3
min read
Published:
July 24, 2025
  • EU and Japan close to trade deals
  • ECB likely to hold rates today


Yesterday's currency recap

Markets moved yesterday, on reports of possible trades with the US, seeing both JPY and EUR strengthening as tariff clarity lifted risk appetite. EURUSD traded back near the July highs.

USD was dragged lower after commerce secretary Howard Lutnick commented that Jerome Powell “has to go”.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
GBPAUD -0.30% 2.0508
GBPCAD -0.10% 1.845
GBPCHF -0.05% 1.0759
GBPDKK -0.10% 8.6046
GBPEUR -0.10% 1.1528
GBPJPY -0.26% 198.473
GBPNOK -0.25% 13.686
GBPNZD -0.19% 2.2423
GBPSEK -0.05% 12.9042
GBPUSD -0.17% 1.3559


*Daily move - against
G10 rates at 7:00 am, 24.07.25

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 24.07.25

Key data points

Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
EUR Manufacturing PMI Jul 49.80 49.50
EUR Services PMI Jul 50.60 60.50
EUR Composite PMI Jul 50.70 50.60
GBP Manufacturing PMI Jul 48.00 47.70
GBP Services PMI Jul 52.90 52.80
GBP Composite PMI Jul 51.80 52.00
USD Manufacturing PMI Jul 52.70 52.90
USD Services PMI Jul 53.00 52.90
USD Composite PMI Jul 52.80 52.90
EUR ECB Meeting Jul 2.00% 2.00%

What we think

Busy day ahead in the FX space, with the focus squarely on the ECB meeting and a full slate of PMIs across the UK, Eurozone, and US.

No change expected from the ECB today, but the tone from Lagarde will be key - any dovish lean or tariff talk could see the EUR slip, while firmer data and confidence could keep it supported.

GBP trades into the UK PMIs on the back foot, with signs of a growth slowdown likely to reinforce August rate cut expectations.

USD takes its cue from US PMIs later in the session, with yields still the main driver intraday.

Read more about the European Central Bank's interest rate decisions here - When is the next ECB interest rate decision?

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