Currency news / March 20, 2025

One central bank down, one to go

3 min read Natalyia Forbes

Natalyia ForbesMarch 20, 2025

Market snapshot:

GBP: BoE interest rate decision
USD: Fed left rates unchanged and cut growth forecast
EUR: Awaiting tomorrow's vote on stimulus package approval

Yesterday's currency recap

Yesterday, GBPUSD remained stagnant ahead of the Fed meeting, which held rates steady as expected but failed to provide clear direction for the currency.

The Fed lowered its growth forecasts and raised inflation projections, reigniting concerns that interest rates may remain high for longer and sparking new recession fears.

In the eurozone, Germany’s approval of a major infrastructure fund is supporting the euro, which recovered after a brief dip.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.42%	2.0550
GBPCAD	-0.26%	1.8619
GBPCHF	0.50%	1.1425
GBPDKK	0.49%	8.9055
GBPEUR	0.43%	1.1940
GBPJPY	-0.79%	192.6800
GBPNOK	0.56%	13.7160
GBPNZD	0.49%	2.2510
GBPSEK	0.54%	13.1584
GBPUSD	-0.26%	1.2968

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 20.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 20.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
GBP	BoE Interest Rate Decision		4.50%	4.50%
CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision		0.25%	1%
USD	Initial Job Claims	Weekly	244k	220k

Today's speeches

EUR: ECB's President Lagarde speech

What we think

Today’s key event is the BoE interest rate decision, where no change is expected and the rate decision is expected to keep Sterling stable. Tomorrow’s UK retail sales data could affect GBP if the figures disappoint.

Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to be weaker, which could put pressure on the euro. The euro remains a safe haven, while the dollar’s direction is uncertain amid inflation and growth concerns.

In the US, Donald Trump’s tariffs and significant cuts to government spending are expected to impact the economy, with the Fed projecting GDP growth of 1.7% this year and an inflation rise of 2.7%. This marks a shift from December’s forecasts, which predicted 2.1% growth and lower inflation. Despite yesterday's small recovery, coupled with tariffs, this continues to weigh heavy on US equities and the dollar.

The US initial job claims report will be important for assessing market strength.

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