Currency news / July 30, 2025

Powell holds the cards – FOMC to set the summer FX tone

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamJuly 30, 2025

Market snapshot:

Calm before data-packed day

Yesterday's currency recap

USD powered higher to hit a one-month high against the EUR, as markets continued to digest details from the US - EU trade deal. The move marked the biggest two-day drop for EURUSD in nearly three years, with the EUR continuing to be sold aggressively.

GBP wasn’t immune either - GBPUSD slid to a 10-week low, dragged lower by the stronger greenback and persistently weak macro signals. The latest data showed food inflation rose to a 17-month high, highlighting the spending pressures on UK households. Some USD gains were given back by the end of the day after JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected, prompting a narrative of a softening job market.

Read more about the JOLTS job openings here - When is the next JOLTS report?

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.10%	2.05
GBPCAD	0.17%	1.8376
GBPCHF	0.28%	1.0768
GBPDKK	0.30%	8.6313
GBPEUR	0.30%	1.1568
GBPJPY	-0.10%	198.2
GBPNOK	0.00%	13.631
GBPNZD	0.20%	2.2408
GBPSEK	0.27%	12.8831
GBPUSD	-0.13%	1.3337

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 30.07.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 30.07.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	GDP QoQ	Q2	0.00%	0.60%
EUR	GDP YoY	Q2	1.20%	1.50%
USD	ADP Employment Change	Jul	75,000	-33,000
USD	Q2 GDP (Advance)	Q2	2.50%	-0.50%
USD	Core PCE Index	Q2	2.30%	3.50%
USD	FOMC Rate Decision	Jul	4.50%	4.50%

What we think

It’s all about the Fed. Consensus is for a hold, but markets are still pricing in a meaningful chance of cuts later this year. Powell’s language will be the swing factor - a hawkish tilt will likely see further USD gains, while a dovish nod risks a broad USD pullback, with EUR and GBP best placed to benefit. Before the main event in the evening, we have the ADP payroll print at 1.15pm and the Q2 GDP numbers at 1.30pm.

Out of Europe we have Q2 GDP numbers at 10.00am - expected to show growth dropping to 0.00% from 0.6% in Q1. Slower growth will likely add further pressure to the EUR ahead of the CPI numbers out on Friday.

Read more about the Fed interest rate decision here:

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