Depending on whose transcript you read, yesterday’s peace talks between Trump and Putin have two very different outcomes: Trump claiming they’re making progress on the path to peace, and Putin very much the opposite, stating his demands aren’t close to being met.
What we do know is there is an agreed temporary cease fire on energy infrastructure within Ukraine, and talks are expected to continue on Sunday.
Peace talks didn’t end Trump's busy day after the White House stated reciprocal tariffs are still intended to take effect from 2nd April, meaning further fears of ping pong tariffs continue. The result of this was further weakness to the dollar and US stocks continued to weigh heavy. There's more financial news from the US isn't coming this evenings with the interest rate decision expected to tussle between recessionary fears and consumer expectation of growing prices and inflation.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 19.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 19.03.25
Most markets will now look to the Fed this evening as the expectation is to hold rates steady with only 2 cuts priced-in this year. However, most believe the central bank will cut growth expectations this year, which could prolong USD weakness.
The EUR has been one of the best performing currencies over the last few weeks, but, due to Putin refusing the 30-day ceasefire, it has given back some of its gains. As a result, markets continue to seek haven status in gold.
Turkey has also seen action - the lira is down by 5% after President Erdogan's main rival, Imamolgu, was arrested just days before being announced as the key challenger. This risk into markets is also filtering through to currencies like HUF and PLZ, which are all being hit over concerns within central EUR.
Read more about the Fed's interest rate decision here: When is the next Fed interest rate decision?
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