Currency news / February 25, 2025

Trump keeps tariff risk on the table

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamFebruary 25, 2025

Market snapshot:

Mexico and Canada tariffs pressed to move ahead
Macron and Trump meeting suggests Ukraine deal could be on the cards

Yesterday's currency recap

USD found some support yesterday after President Trump stated that tariffs on Canada and Mexico are still moving ahead after a month's delay. As a reminder, the US is set to impose 25% tariffs on both countries. USD was also in demand on safe haven buying following a slump in US equities.

French president Emmanuel Macron met Trump in the White House yesterday announcing “we’re going to get this” Ukraine deal done.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.10%	1.9904
GBPCAD	-0.02%	1.7999
GBPCHF	-0.08%	1.1318
GBPDKK	-0.05%	8.9923
GBPEUR	-0.05%	1.2055
GBPJPY	-0.25%	188.5370
GBPNOK	-0.10%	14.0204
GBPNZD	0.07%	2.2038
GBPSEK	-0.23%	13.4304
GBPUSD	-0.05%	1.2623

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 25.02.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 25.02.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Consumer Confidence	Feb	102.50	104.10
EUR	Negotiated Wage Rates	Q4 2024

Speeches

USD: Fed Barr, Barkin
EUR: ECB Centeno, Schnabel
GBP: BoE Pill

What we think

From Europe this morning we have the ECB’s publication of negotiated wage rates for the final quarter of 2024. In Q3 the number jumped to 5.4% year-on-year, far above the ECB’s target of 3%. A higher number today could see markets ease rate cut expectations.

From the US, we have consumer confidence numbers for February, which is forecast to decline for the 3rd consecutive month and thus could cause some weakness on USD.

And finally, for GBP today we have the BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking.

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