Currency news

Hung parliament in France

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
08/07/24
  • Left-wing coalition pull out surprise win
  • US CPI and Fed Powell focus for the week

See our guide to the key FX dates in July 2024 to be aware of when making cross-border payments.


Currency recap

USD lost ground after data showed continued cooling pressures in the US jobs markets. Unemployment ticked higher to 4.1%, hourly earnings dropped, and although the non-farm payroll print came in higher than expected, the previous month's figures were revised lower after the initial estimate.

Over in France we have a hung parliament after a shock win by the left wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire, who won 182 seats. Macron's centrist party came second with 163 seats, and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally came third with 143 seats.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
GBPAUD 0.15 1.8996
GBPCAD 0.53% 1.7461
GBPCHF 0.09% 1.1495
GBPDKK 0.22% 8.8219
GBPEUR 0.22% 1.1827
GBPJPY 0.05% 205.8540
GBPNOK 0.18% 13.5091
GBPNZD 0.05% 2.0868
GBPSEK 0.17% 13.4245
GBPUSD 0.34% 1.2805


*Daily move - against
G10 rates at 7:30am, 08.07.24

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 08.07.24

Key data points

Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
N/A None today. N/A N/A N/A

Upcoming speeches

  • None today.

What we think

The hung parliament in France has seen EUR marginally weaker this morning, but losses have been limited as markets continue to digest the news. However, when you weigh up the stability of UK politics versus the uncertainty in France, there seems to be a higher likelihood that we could see gains for GBPEUR with a test of the recent highs.

This week's focus falls on Fed Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress over Tuesday and Wednesday, where markets are expecting a dovish tone to be struck. On Thursday we have UK GDP numbers for May, expected to show the economy is on for a healthy gain in the second quarter, and later in the afternoon we have US CPI numbers, with the year-on-year number expected to show a decline from 3.3% to 3.1%. In light of Friday's job numbers, this week's CPI number, and Powell speech, this does seem to point to further declines on USD, meaning we could see a test of 2024 highs on GBPUSD.

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About the author
Thanim Islam
Profile
Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money

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