Currency news

USD gains continue on rate repricing

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
12/09/24
    • Markets move the needle to the 25bps expected cut by Fed
    • ECB expected to cut interest rates again today


    Yesterday's currency recap

    August's higher than expected CPI numbers saw markets now in favour of a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed next week. As a result USD continued to trade stronger, taking both GBPUSD and EURUSD to a 3-week low.

    Expecting a smaller rate cut next week equity markets experienced a wave of sell-offs, which took GBP down with it as well.

    GBPEUR now trades at a 2-week low.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD -0.37% 1.9587
    GBPCAD -0.50% 1.7711
    GBPCHF 0.07% 1.1084
    GBPDKK -0.31% 8.8283
    GBPEUR -0.31% 1.1831
    GBPJPY -0.78% 184.7490
    GBPNOK -0.17% 14.1536
    GBPNZD 0.03% 2.1281
    GBPSEK -0.21% 13.5324
    GBPUSD -0.36% 1.3029


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 12.09.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 12.09.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR ECB Rare Decision Sept 3.50% 3.75%
    USD PPI MoM Aug 0.10% 0.10%
    USD PPI YoY Aug 1.70% 2.20%
    USD Core PPI MoM Aug 0.20% 0.00%
    USD Core PPI YoY Aug 2.40% 2.40%

    What we think

    Today, markets are widely expecting another 0.25% interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) along with data-dependent guidance on future rate cuts – essentially reaffirming the forward guidance from what has been previously stated.

    Barring any major surprises, we expect minimal impact on EUR. It is also worth noting that we have US PPI numbers and weekly jobless claims – further USD gains could be seen on a higher PPI number as well as a lower claims number.

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