Currency news

Markets pushing for a 50 bps rate reduction

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Publish date
17/09/24
    • USD remains weak
    • UK CPI tomorrow key for GBP


    Yesterday's currency recap

    Bets on a 50 bps rate cut continued to rise yesterday, seeing a weaker USD across the board. GBP benefitted from the improved risk appetite in the markets.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.07% 1.9593
    GBPCAD 0.40% 1.7951
    GBPCHF 0.12% 1.1157
    GBPDKK 0.14% 8.8554
    GBPEUR 0.14% 1.1868
    GBPJPY 0.56% 185.8620
    GBPNOK 0.17% 14.0160
    GBPNZD 0.13% 2.1346
    GBPSEK 0.32% 13.4661
    GBPUSD 0.58% 1.3198


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 17.09.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 17.09.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    USD Retail Sales MoM Aug -0.20% 1.00%
    USD Retail Sales YoY Aug 0.30% 0.30%
    EUR ZEW Survey 17.90

    What we think

    Today, ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting, US retail sales numbers are expected to show a marginal decline of 0.2% month-on-month in August.

    The ZEW survey pessimism is unlikely to have much of a negative impact on the EUR considering the main driver in FX currently is whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps tomorrow.

    We expect USD to stay on the back foot over the next 24 hours.

    UK CPI numbers are coming out tomorrow morning and, as mentioned yesterday, the services component will be key to the BoE's rate cut direction.

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