The EUR was the big winner on Friday, gaining by 0.5% versus GBP, and 0.4% versus USD, after news emerged that the European Union has identified concessions they are willing to make to the Trump administration to secure the partial removal of some US tariffs.
CAD gained after Trump tweeted that his call with Canadian PM Mark Carney was “extremely productive”.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 31.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 31.03.25
Yes, it's the first week of the month, meaning focus will be on US job numbers and whether the data can bring about some renewed optimism for the US economy. However, market focus will likely be on ‘Liberation Day’ on the 2nd April, the unveiling of new tariffs and their targets, and the ensuing implications.
Today we have German CPI numbers where we expect to see a minor drop in inflation for March.
Markets have started the week very much on the back foot on tariff concerns with stocks all down, gold up and Japanese yen higher. Traders are also pricing-in the potential for central banks cutting rates even further on slower growth concerns. The Fed is now pricing at 80bp worth of cuts, the ECB at 65bp and the BoE at 55bp.
Tomorrow morning, we have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, where we expect no changes, and the first estimates of inflation in Europe for March.
It could be an explosive start to the month.
Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.
Have a great day.
