Currency news / March 31, 2025

Markets get set for a rollercoaster week!

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamMarch 31, 2025

Market snapshot:

Tariff concerns rattle markets
Big week ahead with tariff announcement and job numbers

Currency recap

The EUR was the big winner on Friday, gaining by 0.5% versus GBP, and 0.4% versus USD, after news emerged that the European Union has identified concessions they are willing to make to the Trump administration to secure the partial removal of some US tariffs.

CAD gained after Trump tweeted that his call with Canadian PM Mark Carney was “extremely productive”.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.12%	2.0563
GBPCAD	-0.12%	1.8497
GBPCHF	-0.11%	1.1405
GBPDKK	-0.50%	8.9169
GBPEUR	-0.50%	1.1952
GBPJPY	-0.67%	194.262
GBPNOK	-0.18%	13.5428
GBPNZD	0.22%	2.261
GBPSEK	-0.23%	12.9175
GBPUSD	-0.02%	1.2946

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 31.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 31.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	German CPI MoM	Mar	0.30%	0.40%
EUR	German CPI YoY	Mar	2.20%	2.30%

What we think

Yes, it's the first week of the month, meaning focus will be on US job numbers and whether the data can bring about some renewed optimism for the US economy. However, market focus will likely be on ‘Liberation Day’ on the 2nd April, the unveiling of new tariffs and their targets, and the ensuing implications.

Today we have German CPI numbers where we expect to see a minor drop in inflation for March.

Markets have started the week very much on the back foot on tariff concerns with stocks all down, gold up and Japanese yen higher. Traders are also pricing-in the potential for central banks cutting rates even further on slower growth concerns. The Fed is now pricing at 80bp worth of cuts, the ECB at 65bp and the BoE at 55bp.

Tomorrow morning, we have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, where we expect no changes, and the first estimates of inflation in Europe for March.

It could be an explosive start to the month.

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