Markets poised for Jackson Hole

Yesterday's currency recap

USD slipped, with the USD index down 0.4% today and on track for a 0.3% weekly loss, as mixed US data - softer-than-expected retail sales, stronger inflation expectations, and weaker consumer sentiment - failed to alter September Fed rate-cut bets too much.

Today's GBP rates

What we think

Summer trading may dominate early in the week with very little movement as focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Jackson Hole speech from Chair Powell. US data is light, with jobless claims and S&P flash PMIs the highlights.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut rates by 25bp and key inflation prints land in Canada, UK and Japan, while European flash PMIs will gauge tariff impacts.

UK data takes the spotlight with July CPI (seen at 3.7% YoY), August PMIs (UK composite seen at 52), and July retail sales all due out, while euro-area negotiated wages should confirm further cooling in pay growth, supporting easing in domestic inflation.

Risk appetite caught a bid this morning after the Trump–Putin summit wrapped without drama. Markets were braced for a tougher tone, but the lack of escalation on Ukraine means it’s a “less bad” outcome that gave equities and high-beta FX some breathing space. The focus now shifts to Trump–Zelensky talks scheduled for Monday afternoon.

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