Currency news / April 4, 2025

Trump open to reducing tariffs

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamApril 4, 2025

Market snapshot:

Markets book profits on USD weakness ahead of payrolls
Fed Powell also set to speak today

Yesterday's currency recap

So, where do we start - yesterday's market was a rollercoaster ride. Stocks continued to dip throughout the day, only catching a bit of support after 4pm.

USD, on average, was 1% lower versus all G10 currencies due to stagflation fears. The biggest benefactors of yesterday's chaos were CHF and JPY, attracting safe haven flows.

EUR gained on talks of countermeasures from the EU, with trade chief Maros Sefcovic commenting that the EU will look to diversify trade partnerships around the world.

Initial GBP gains were erased, as the market swiftly adjusted to anticipate further rate cuts from the BoE by year's end.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.06%	2.0635
GBPCAD	-0.50%	1.8432
GBPCHF	-1.64%	1.1265
GBPDKK	-0.90%	8.8521
GBPEUR	-0.90%	1.1863
GBPJPY	-1.20%	191.516
GBPNOK	-0.02%	13.5262
GBPNZD	-0.37%	2.2545
GBPSEK	-0.96%	12.7687
GBPUSD	0.83%	1.3113

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 04.04.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 04.04.25

Today's speeches

USD: Fed Chair Powell

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	Mar	140,000	151,000
USD	Unemployment Rate	Mar	4.10%	4.10%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	Mar	0.30%	0.30%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	Mar	4.00%	4.00%

What we think

Markets are still in danger of a risk-off mood, with both JPY and CHF on the front foot this morning. USD is also trying to get some support, with both GBPUSD and EURUSD falling off of yesterday’s highs. But, given the market is in a USD selling mood, a miss on the job numbers this afternoon could well take us back to yesterday's highs.

Today, Fed Chair Powell takes the stage, and with the market anticipating further rate cuts due to economic growth worries, his comments on tariffs should be interesting.

Suffice it to say, we expect another volatile day, and we suggest clients stay nimble to new developments on trade talks, given Donald Trump openly commented overnight that he is open to reducing tariffs.

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