Currency news / February 20, 2025

Trump suggest deal with China could be on

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamFebruary 20, 2025

Market snapshot:

UK consumer confidence slumps ahead of retail sales tomorrow

Yesterday's currency recap

GBP moves were muted after yesterday's CPI print revealed that headline inflation was higher than expected, and services inflation didn't rise as much as forecast. The data had limited impact on future interest rate expectations.

USD attempted to gain last night after the FOMC minutes revealed that officials expressed readiness to keep rates where they are until they see more progress on inflation. But those gains didn’t last long, with USD losing out after President Trump said a fresh deal with China could be possible

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	-0.30%	1.9775
GBPCAD	0.03%	1.7922
GBPCHF	-0.10%	1.1376
GBPDKK	0.02%	9.0091
GBPEUR	0.02%	1.2078
GBPJPY	-0.63%	189.4540
GBPNOK	-0.23%	13.9852
GBPNZD	-0.23%	2.2011
GBPSEK	-0.10%	13.4853
GBPUSD	0.20%	1.2608

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 20.02.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 20.02.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	Feb 15	215000	213000

What we think

We anticipate a quiet day ahead for markets, with only the jobless claims out in the afternoon. Barring any big surprises there, we expect a soft USD following on from Trump's comments last night.

Tomorrow morning, all eyes will be on the UK retail sales report, a pivotal moment given the latest insights from the British Retail Consortium. Their survey reveals a striking dip in consumer confidence, the lowest since Labour's rise to power, with a significant portion of respondents bracing for economic challenges in the coming months.

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