There was a sense of nervousness on GBP pairs following yesterday's rate cut by the Riksbank in Sweden. The move once again highlights the divergence in rate policies between central banks in Europe and the US, and brings into question the possibility that we could see a dovish BoE meeting today, and thus the markets putting in higher odds of a rate cut in June.
Meanwhile stateside Fed member Susan Collins kept on her hawkish hat, suggesting that reaching the 2% inflation goal may take longer and thus rates will need to stay higher for longer.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 09.05.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 09.05.24
So all eyes on Threadneedle Street at noon today, and whether we get a dovish BoE or not. Recent comments from Governor Bailey and deputy governor Ramsden were perceived as dovish, with suggestions that inflation will fall quickly this month. However the chief economist Pill seemed more hawkish, suggesting his thoughts on inflation hadn't changed since March. A dovish BoE will likely increase the odds of a June rate, currently at 50%, and causes declines for GBP. But given the nervousness seen over the last few days, anything perceived less than dovish and we could see a spike in demand for GBP and a retrace back to recent highs.
Should the BoE be on the dovish side then we will likely see USD gain across the board, with the divergence on rate policy between Europe and the US highlighted again.
So June or August for the first Bank of England rate cut? That’s the big question for the day. Markets currently assign a 50% chance of a June cut, with August seen as a done deal. Governor Bailey's comments of late have been on the dovish side, but it's worth noting one of the core measures for the BoE, services inflation, is still around 6% which may stave of the calls for an earlier hike. All eyes on the screen at noon today.
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