Markets were pretty flat on Friday as they seemed hesitant to put any big positions on before the weekend. Earlier in the day, the mood seemed optimistic following a report suggesting the Chinese government is considering suspending its 125% tariffs on some US imports.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 28.04.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 28.04.25
Big week ahead for the US and Europe, with a deluge of data across the whole week.
Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter. However, given the looming threats of US tariffs and the impact this could have on the economy for the rest of the year, any upside surprises could be overlooked. Headline inflation is expected to drop marginally in April, whilst core inflation is expected to rise.
US GDP is expected to drop sharply from 2.4% in Q4 2024 to 0.3% in Q1 of this year. Forward looking indicators, ISM manufacturing is expected to contract further in April, and on Friday, job numbers are set to show that only 125,000 jobs were added in April. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%. It's worth noting that last week we had Fed members comment that should the looming tariffs have a negative impact on the job market then the Fed could look to cut rates as early as June – something not fully priced in by markets at present thus suggesting a bad job print could add pressure on the dollar.
Read more about the Fed's interest rate decisions here - When is the next Fed interest rate decision?
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