Currency news / March 24, 2025

US tariffs set to be targeted?

3 min read Thanim Islam

Thanim IslamMarch 24, 2025

Market snapshot:

Market's fears fade on tariff news
Big week for UK with budget and inflation

Currency recap

Over the weekend, news emerged that the Trump administration are moving towards more targeted tariffs with some countries likely to be exempt. The scope of the tariffs are expected to be narrower than initially planned.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair	Daily move*	Indicative rate**
GBPAUD	0.10%	2.0597
GBPCAD	-0.22%	1.8529
GBPCHF	-0.18%	1.1410
GBPDKK	-0.07%	8.9068
GBPEUR	-0.07%	1.1941
GBPJPY	-0.07%	192.7050
GBPNOK	-0.64%	13.6034
GBPNZD	0.03%	2.2531
GBPSEK	-0.46%	13.0781
GBPUSD	-0.37%	1.2918

*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 24.03.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 24.03.25

Key data points

Currency	Event	Period	Consensus	Previous
EUR	Manufacturing PMI	Mar	48.20%	47.60
EUR	Services PMI	Mar	51.10	50.60
EUR	Composite PMI	Mar	50.70	50.20
GBP	Manufacturing PMI	Mar	47.20	46.90
GBP	Services PMI	Mar	51.00	51.00
GBP	Composite PMI	Mar	50.50	50.50
USD	Manufacturing PMI	Mar	51.80	52.70
USD	Services PMI	Mar	51.00	51.00
USD	Composite PMI	Mar	51.30	51.60

Today's speeches

EUR: ECB Holzmann
GBP: BoE Bailey
USD: Fed Bostic

What we think

Markets continue the countdown to “US Liberation Day” on 2nd April, with the news of more targeted tariffs seeing risk sentiment slightly stronger this morning.

Today's focus falls on PMI numbers from Europe, UK and the US. Anything to suggest that each respective economy is in better shape than it was in February could call into question future rate cut pricing for this year, particularly from the ECB where markets are assigning a 60% chance of a rate cut in April.

Big week for the UK with the release of CPI numbers and the Spring Budget on Wednesday, and retails sales on Friday. Headline CPI is expected to slow to 2.9% from 3%; and services CPI is expected to slow to 4.9% from 5%. With the budget, markets are not expecting any positive surprises and the OBR is expected to revise down productivity for the rest of the year. Overall this week could prove to be risky for GBP.

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